UBS: No Credit Tightening Yet in China

by swisscham in Bank, Finance, Insurance

China’s whole year new RMB lending is likely to reach RMB 9 trillion (USD 1.5 trillion), while total social financing (TSF) may exceed RMB 17 trillion, UBS said in a note on December 11. “No credit tightening yet,” wrote Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS. China’s new RMB lending and total social financing in November both beat market expectations. New TSF stood at 1.23 trillion, 370 billion more than in October. UBS expected outstanding TSF to grow 18.5% in 2013. “November’s strong credit number suggests that the higher interest rates and bond yields of recent months have yet to constrain credit demand much, as feared by the market,” UBS said. “A large segment of the market is still not very sensitive to higher rates”. The bank said the Chinese government would likely follow a relatively prudent monetary and credit policy stance, and expect TSF growth to slow to about 16% in 2014. “Given the ongoing interest rate liberalization and financial deregulation processes, credit growth could again exceed the government’s desired pace in 2014,” UBS said.

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